Small-business confidence just jumped. What your clients are feeling right now.

July's small-business optimism index rose to 99.8, above the expected 97.0 and up from June's 97.4. That's the highest reading in months, and it tells you something real about the psychology on Main Street right now. Small-business owners are the people buying and selling homes in your market. When their confidence ticks up, they start making bigger decisions again, listing the house they've been sitting on, pulling the trigger on the move they delayed, saying yes to the offer instead of waiting another quarter.

On the buyer side, today's average rate is 6.625% (6.674% APR), flat from yesterday. Oil prices pulled back after reports that the U.S. and Iran might be close to a deal, which takes a little pressure off inflation expectations heading into tomorrow's CPI report. If inflation lands where economists expect, rates probably hold here. If it surprises low, you could see a dip by Thursday. For sellers, that rising confidence number means more competition is coming, the clients who were waiting for "the right time" are starting to move. If your listing has been sitting, this is the week to adjust the price or the strategy before the next wave hits the market.

Tomorrow's inflation report is the next thing that moves rates. I'm watching it, and I'll let you know what it means for your deals as soon as the number drops. Call me if you need to talk timing or strategy on a specific client.

Rates shown are today's average California rates as of 7/31/2026, for general information only and not an offer or commitment to lend. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, and property, and rates and terms can change at any time. Brett Hickman, NMLS #2010859. Home First Financial, NMLS #2465048. Equal Housing Lender.