Inflation report drops tomorrow. What it means for your rate this week.

Today's average 30-year fixed rate is 6.625% (6.674% APR). Tomorrow the government publishes July's inflation report, and that number moves mortgage rates faster than almost anything else. If inflation comes in cooler than expected, the bonds that set mortgage rates usually rally and your rate could dip. If it runs hotter, rates can jump the same day. Economists expect a small uptick, so the market has already priced in some of that news. The real move happens if the number surprises either way.

On a $600,000 loan at 6.625% (6.674% APR), your principal and interest payment is about $3,847. If rates drop a quarter point after tomorrow's report, that same loan costs you roughly $3,754 a month, $93 less. If you're payment-sensitive and want a lower starting number, the 40-year interest-only loan at 6.875% (7.014% APR) brings that $600k payment down to $3,438 interest-only for the first decade. It's one tool, not the only one, and it makes sense for some buyers who need the flexibility up front.

If you've been pre-approved and you're close to an offer, tomorrow matters. If the number lands where expected, rates probably hold. If it surprises, you'll see the shift by Thursday morning. I answer my phone, call me and we'll figure out the timing that makes sense for your deal.

Rates shown are today's average California rates as of 8/11/2026, for general information only and not an offer or commitment to lend. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, and property, and rates and terms can change at any time. Brett Hickman, NMLS #2010859. Home First Financial, NMLS #2465048. Equal Housing Lender.