Thursday's jobs number will move rates, one way or the other

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up just a touch today to 4.39%, and the mortgage market is in wait-and-see mode. Oil prices stabilized near $73 after supply routes improved, which is a quiet win for inflation. But the real action comes Thursday when the jobs report lands. Wall Street expects 115,000 new jobs and unemployment at 4.3%. If payrolls come in weaker than that, rates could drop by Friday. If they surprise higher, rates move the other way.

Your sellers need to hear this: rates are flat today, but they could shift in either direction by the weekend depending on how many people are working and how fast wages are climbing. That's the window where a motivated buyer decides to jump or wait. For your buyers, the line is simple. Today's average rate is 6.375% (6.424% APR). If Thursday's jobs number is soft, that rate could tick lower. If it's strong, the window gets a little tighter. Either way, the data will tell the story.

I'm here if you need a quick read on what the numbers mean for your deal when they drop. I answer my own phone, and I'll walk through the math with you or your client in plain terms.

Rates shown are today's average California rates as of 6/24/2026, for general information only and not an offer or commitment to lend. Your actual rate and APR depend on your credit, loan amount, down payment, and property, and rates and terms can change at any time. Brett Hickman, NMLS #2010859. Home First Financial, NMLS #2465048. Equal Housing Lender.